Botswana Mining Review Comprehensive Coverage of the Progress and Achievements in the Mining Sector
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A garment entrepreneur in Gaborone, BLESEDI (not her real name),represents a growing strain beneath Botswana’s long-standing reputation as Africa’s model of resource-led stability. Her factory floor has been quiet for months. Orders have been absent since around October last year as the business went through a cost-cutting transition, leaving production lines idle and uncertainty hanging over any meaningful recovery.
“They had a meeting with us that they are done with the transition and promised that orders should start coming through. But I don’t think it will be like before, as you know the diamond sales have gone down,” said BLESEDI. Her experience is increasingly reflective of a wider economic adjustment underway in Botswana, where diamonds have long anchored growth, jobs and industrial spillovers. With sales weakening and global demand shifting, the ripple effects are now being felt across small suppliers, manufacturers and linked industries that once benefited from a stable diamond cycle.
At the macro level, Botswana is facing a structural stress test. The country has not sold diamonds for months in some cycles, while lab-grown alternatives are reshaping global demand patterns. Anglo American’s decision to offload De Beers has further reinforced uncertainty, following multibillion-dollar write-downs that have weighed on the sector’s valuation and long-term outlook. The country had spent years negotiating a revised arrangement with De Beers, with discussions beginning in 2018 and only reaching formal closure under President Duma Boko after earlier agreements stalled. Under the current framework, the state-owned Okavango Diamond Company (ODC) will gradually increase its share of Debswana output, though below earlier expectations set in prior negotiations.
As Botswana reassesses its position in a changing diamond economy, the government is simultaneously pushing more aggressively into diversification. Boko has signalled interest in increasing Botswana’s stake in De Beers from 15% to potentially over 50%, a move aimed at securing greater control over the diamond value chain amid Anglo American’s strategic retreat. Financing discussions have reportedly included sovereign partners such as the Oman sovereign wealth fund, although market conditions remain uncertain.
Diamonds still account for roughly a third of government revenue and the majority of foreign exchange earnings, making the sector’s volatility particularly consequential. The economy contracted in 2025, with official data showing a 5.3% year-on-year decline in GDP in one quarter, the sharpest since the pandemic period. Finance Minister Ndaba Gaolathe has projected a cautious recovery, estimating growth of 3.1% in 2026 but acknowledges widening fiscal pressures. Even with projected recovery, fiscal space is tightening. The budget deficit for the upcoming fiscal year is expected to reach 8.9% of GDP, while public debt is projected to rise toward and potentially beyond statutory thresholds. The government has warned that maintaining strict fiscal limits could deepen economic contraction rather than stabilise it.
In response, Botswana is accelerating diversification efforts into copper, cobalt, critical minerals, renewable energy, agriculture and technology. Roughly 70% of unexplored territory is now being targeted for mineral exploration, signalling a strategic pivot away from single-commodity dependence toward a broader resource base aligned with the global energy transition. But Botswana’s challenge is not unique. Across Africa, resource-rich economies are confronting similar pressures as global demand patterns shift and investors increasingly prioritise value-added supply chains over raw extraction. Zimbabwe, for example, has imposed restrictions on raw lithium exports to force local beneficiation, reshaping supply chains for global battery manufacturers and underscoring rising resource nationalism across the continent.
For economic analyst Persistence Gwanyanya, the issue is structural rather than cyclical. “For this reason, African countries must be careful and strategic in how they manage their resources. They should avoid being so desperate for investment that they end up losing control of their minerals to countries that historically benefited from Africa’s resources. Africa should wake up and ensure that its mineral wealth contributes meaningfully to the development of its own economies,” said Gwanyanya.
That shift is already visible in policy direction. Governments are increasingly pushing beneficiation, local content requirements and tighter control over export value chains. But implementation gaps remain, particularly in infrastructure, processing capacity and industrial ecosystems needed to absorb upstream production. Gwanyanya noted, “Regardless of whether partners come from China, Europe, the United States or even within the region, African countries must carefully evaluate their intentions and actions.”
The broader opportunity, however, is significant if managed effectively. Africa’s mineral endowment from lithium and cobalt to copper, platinum group metals and rare earths places it at the centre of the global energy transition. The real question is whether the continent can convert geological advantage into industrial capacity. For Botswana, the current downturn is both a warning and a window. The diamond model that underpinned decades of growth is under strain but the policy response underway suggests an attempt to reposition rather than retreat. What happens next will determine whether this is a temporary shock or the beginning of a broader continental reset in how resource wealth is owned, processed and monetised.
